COT Counter-Positioning

When Smart Money and Retail Traders Diverge

4
Total Signals
1
Bullish Signals
3
Bearish Signals
Understanding Counter-Positioning

Counter-positioning occurs when institutions (commercials) and retailers (small traders) are at opposite extreme levels.

Since retailers are typically on the wrong side of trades, their extreme positioning opposite to institutions can signal potential trading opportunities.

Signal Types
Bullish Institutions high (≥80%), Retailers low (≤20%)
Bearish Institutions low (≤20%), Retailers high (≥80%)
Strength Levels
81-100% Very Strong
61-80% Strong
31-60% Moderate
Key Point: Smart Money vs Dumb Money (MODERATE)

This page detects counter-positioning when Institutions (Commercials) and Retailers (Small Traders) are at OPPOSITE extremes (80/20).

Based on "retailers are always wrong" theory. When institutions are extremely long (≥80%) and retailers extremely short (≤20%), it suggests bullish potential. Ignores Large Specs to focus purely on smart money vs dumb money divergence.

Counter-Positioning Signals
4 signals detected
Data as of Feb 03, 2026
Commodity Category Signal Institutions Retailers Spread Strength Interpretation
Sugar No 11 Softs Bullish 100% 0% 100pts 73% Smart money (institutions) is positioned long at 100% while dumb money (retailers) is positioned short at 0%. This divergence historically suggests bullish potential.
Australian Dollar Currencies Bearish 1% 91% 90pts 61% Smart money (institutions) is positioned short at 1% while dumb money (retailers) is positioned long at 91%. This divergence historically suggests bearish potential.
Euro Fx Currencies Bearish 7% 91% 84pts 57% Smart money (institutions) is positioned short at 7% while dumb money (retailers) is positioned long at 91%. This divergence historically suggests bearish potential.
Copper Metals Bearish 17% 90% 74pts 44% Smart money (institutions) is positioned short at 17% while dumb money (retailers) is positioned long at 90%. This divergence historically suggests bearish potential.