COT Counter-Positioning

When Smart Money and Retail Traders Diverge

5
Total Signals
3
Bullish Signals
2
Bearish Signals
Understanding Counter-Positioning

Counter-positioning occurs when institutions (commercials) and retailers (small traders) are at opposite extreme levels.

Since retailers are typically on the wrong side of trades, their extreme positioning opposite to institutions can signal potential trading opportunities.

Signal Types
Bullish Institutions high (≥80%), Retailers low (≤20%)
Bearish Institutions low (≤20%), Retailers high (≥80%)
Strength Levels
81-100% Very Strong
61-80% Strong
31-60% Moderate
Key Point: Smart Money vs Dumb Money (MODERATE)

This page detects counter-positioning when Institutions (Commercials) and Retailers (Small Traders) are at OPPOSITE extremes (80/20).

Based on "retailers are always wrong" theory. When institutions are extremely long (≥80%) and retailers extremely short (≤20%), it suggests bullish potential. Ignores Large Specs to focus purely on smart money vs dumb money divergence.

Counter-Positioning Signals
5 signals detected
Data as of Jan 13, 2026
Commodity Category Signal Institutions Retailers Spread Strength Interpretation
Cocoa Softs Bullish 100% 2% 98pts 71% Smart money (institutions) is positioned long at 100% while dumb money (retailers) is positioned short at 2%. This divergence historically suggests bullish potential.
Sugar No 11 Softs Bullish 94% 6% 88pts 61% Smart money (institutions) is positioned long at 94% while dumb money (retailers) is positioned short at 6%. This divergence historically suggests bullish potential.
Copper Metals Bearish 11% 100% 89pts 60% Smart money (institutions) is positioned short at 11% while dumb money (retailers) is positioned long at 100%. This divergence historically suggests bearish potential.
Gold Metals Bearish 17% 100% 83pts 53% Smart money (institutions) is positioned short at 17% while dumb money (retailers) is positioned long at 100%. This divergence historically suggests bearish potential.
Crude Oil Energy Bullish 97% 16% 81pts 51% Smart money (institutions) is positioned long at 97% while dumb money (retailers) is positioned short at 16%. This divergence historically suggests bullish potential.