What Happened After COT Extremes?

See how prices moved after trader positioning became unusually high or low

Past moves are useful context, but they do not tell us what will happen next.

1807
Times Found
52.4%
Moved This Way After 4 Weeks
+3.72%
Average 4-Week Move
Results by Market
38 markets
History 3Y
Market Times Found After 2 Weeks After 4 Weeks After 8 Weeks Average Move Chart
Dollar Index (DXY) 81 53.2% 54.5% 53.9% +0.43%
Japanese Yen (JPY) 71 44.3% 42.6% 42.2% +0.07%
Euro (EUR) 69 50.7% 52.2% 54.5% -0.05%
Cocoa 67 49.3% 50.7% 47.0% +2.64%
US Treasury 5Y Note 64 64.5% 65.0% 66.1% +2.28%
Mexican Peso (MXN) 62 37.1% 30.6% 31.7% -0.79%
Silver 57 57.9% 45.6% 51.8% +1.88%
Australian Dollar (AUD) 57 60.0% 63.0% 64.2% +0.42%
Palladium 54 48.1% 52.0% 55.3% -1.89%
Corn 53 35.8% 39.6% 45.3% -1.13%
Sugar No 11 53 57.7% 51.9% 44.2% +0.12%
Canadian Dollar (CAD) 52 52.0% 60.4% 66.0% +0.28%
Swiss Franc (CHF) 52 46.2% 56.0% 64.6% +0.33%
Cotton No 2 51 45.1% 45.1% 50.0% -1.1%
New Zealand Dollar (NZD) 50 54.2% 70.2% 76.6% +0.51%
Gold 49 49.0% 30.6% 29.8% -2.0%
Coffee C 48 52.1% 44.7% 41.3% -1.19%
Rough Rice 48 56.5% 47.8% 23.8% -0.66%
Gasoline Rbob 47 47.8% 47.7% 35.0% -1.25%
Orange Juice 46 52.2% 54.3% 65.2% +3.6%
Brazilian Real (BRL) 46 60.9% 58.7% 75.0% +0.71%
Bitcoin 46 56.8% 57.1% 73.7% +5.27%
Crude Oil 44 56.8% 47.7% 43.2% -3.18%
VIX 43 55.8% 74.4% 74.4% +6.14%
Copper 43 44.2% 50.0% 59.0% +0.92%
NASDAQ 100 Consolidated 40 51.3% 43.6% 44.7% -0.19%
US Treasury Bond 40 55.0% 70.0% 63.2% +65.91%
British Pound (GBP) 39 65.8% 69.4% 66.7% +0.52%
Fed Funds 39 40.5% 37.1% 41.2% -0.39%
Wheat 39 59.0% 61.5% 63.2% +1.93%
Live Cattle 38 47.4% 55.3% 42.1% +1.05%
Russell 2000 Mini 36 50.0% 50.0% 51.4% +77.63%
Soybeans 36 51.4% 65.7% 80.0% +1.5%
Natural Gas 34 57.6% 57.6% 59.4% +6.14%
S&P 500 Consolidated 32 67.7% 76.7% 75.9% +2.11%
US Treasury 10Y Note 32 18.8% 22.6% 11.1% -1.0%
DJIA Consolidated 31 63.3% 46.4% 64.3% +0.25%
Platinum 18 75.0% 73.3% 80.0% +2.36%
How to read this page

The tool finds times when a trader group's position was close to its recent high or low.

It then checks whether price moved in the same direction 2, 4, and 8 weeks later. Several nearby weeks can describe the same market move, so treat the percentages as history—not a promise.