Precious Metals Analysis

This page analyzes 7 indicators to determine whether gold and silver are fundamentally bullish or bearish. The indicators are grouped into three categories.

Macro Drivers

• Real Yields (TIPS) — The 10-year TIPS yield represents the "real" return on bonds after inflation. Lower real yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.
• Breakeven Inflation — The market's expectation for inflation over the next 10 years. Higher inflation expectations increase demand for gold as an inflation hedge.
• Dollar Strength (DXY) — Gold is priced in dollars. A weaker dollar makes gold cheaper for foreign buyers.

COT Positioning

• Commercial Hedgers — Miners and producers who hedge their output. Their positioning is tracked same-direction.
• Large Speculators — Hedge funds and money managers. Same-direction signal — momentum follows their bets.
• Retail Traders — Small speculators used as a contrarian indicator. When retail is extremely long, it's bearish.

Risk Sentiment

• VIX (Fear Index) — Higher VIX means more market fear, which drives safe-haven demand for gold.